Schwankungen der Sonnenaktivität beeinflussen das Klima. Das zeigen hunderte von paläoklimatologischen Fallstudien. Der IPCC will es nicht wahrhaben, vergräbt den Kopf lieber im Sand. Im Folgenden wollen wir Ihnen aktuelle Studien aus Nordamerika vorstellen. Beginnen wollen wir in den südwestlichen USA und Mexiko, eine Gegend die stark vom nordamerikanischen Monsunregen abhängt. Eine Gruppe um Matthew Jones rekonstruierte das Regengeschehen in der Region für die vergangenen 6000 Jahre und fand solar-verdächtige Frequenzen in den Schwankungen. 22 Jahre entsprechen dem Hale Zyklus, 2000 Jahre sind der Hallstatt-Zyklus, und auch die 500 Jahre sind eine bekannte Sonnengröße. Hier der Abstract der Arbeit, die im September 2015 in den Quaternary Science Reviews erschien:
Late Holocene climate reorganisation and the North American Monsoon
The North American Monsoon (NAM) provides the majority of rainfall for central and northern Mexico as well as parts of the south west USA. The controls over the strength of the NAM in a given year are complex, and include both Pacific and Atlantic systems. We present here an annually resolved proxy reconstruction of NAM rainfall variability over the last ∼6 ka, from an inwash record from the Laguna de Juanacatlán, Mexico. This high resolution, exceptionally well dated record allows changes in the NAM through the latter half of the Holocene to be investigated in both time and space domains, improving our understanding of the controls on the system. Our analysis shows a shift in conditions between c. 4 and 3 ka BP, after which clear ENSO/PDO type forcing patterns are evident.
- Annual proxy rainfall record of the late Holocene North American Monsoon.
- Significant variability at ∼2000, ∼565, ∼65 and ∼22 year frequencies.
- Present day North American Monsoon patterns were established after 3ka BP.
Bleiben wir im Süden und gehen in den Golf von Mexiko und die Karibik. Berenice Rojo-Garibaldi und Kollegen fanden einen Zusammenhang zwischen Hurrikanen und Sonnenaktivität, den sie im Oktober 2016 im Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics beschrieben:
Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea and their relationship with sunspots
We present the results of a time series analysis of hurricanes and sunspots occurring from 1749 to 2010. Exploratory analysis shows that the total number of hurricanes is declining. This decline is related to an increase in sunspot activity. Spectral analysis shows a relationship between hurricane oscillation periods and sunspot activity. Several sunspot cycles were identified from the time series analysis.
•Exploratory analysis shows that hurricane numbers is declining in total number by year.
•This decline in the number of hurricanes is related to an increase in the sunspots activity.
•The relationship between hurricanes and sunspot is both direct and inverse.
•hurricanes are in phase with sunspots and others are out of phase.
Weiter in Alaska. Willy Tinner und Kollegen publizierten im Oktober 2015 in den Quaternary Science Reviews zur Temperaturgeschichte Alaskas für die letzten 4000 Jahre. Kältephasen mit Einbruch der Vegetation fielen interessanterweise in solare Schwächeperioden. Hier der Abstract:
Late-Holocene climate variability and ecosystem responses in Alaska inferred from high-resolution multiproxy sediment analyses at Grizzly Lake
The late-Holocene shift from Picea glauca (white spruce) to Picea mariana (black spruce) forests marked the establishment of modern boreal forests in Alaska. To understand the patterns and drivers of this vegetational change and the associated late-Holocene environmental dynamics, we analyzed radiocarbon-dated sediments from Grizzly Lake for chironomids, diatoms, pollen, macrofossils, charcoal, element composition, particle size, and magnetic properties for the period 4100–1800 cal BP. Chironomid assemblages reveal two episodes of decreased July temperature, at ca. 3300–3150 (ca −1 °C) and 2900–2550 cal BP (ca −2 °C). These episodes coincided with climate change elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere, atmospheric reorganization, and low solar activity. Diatom-inferred lake levels dropped by ca. 5 m at 3200 cal BP, suggesting dry conditions during the period 3200–1800 cal BP. P. glauca declined and P. mariana expanded at ca. 3200 cal BP; this vegetational change was linked to diatom-inferred low lake levels and thus decreased moisture availability. Forest cover declined at 3300–3100, 2800–2500 and 2300–2100 cal BP and soil erosion as inferred from increased values of Al, K, Si, Ti, and Ca intensified, when solar irradiance was low. Plant taxa adapted to disturbance and cold climate (e.g. Alnus viridis, shrub Betula, Epilobium) expanded during these periods of reduced forest cover. This open vegetation type was associated with high fire activity that peaked at 2800 cal BP, when climatic conditions were particularly cold and dry. Forest recovery lagged behind subsequent climate warming (≤+3 °C) by ca. 75–225 years. Our multiproxy data set suggests that P. glauca was dominant under warm-moist climatic conditions, whereas P. mariana prevailed under cold-dry and warm-dry conditions. This pattern implies that climatic warming, as anticipated for this century, may promote P. glauca expansions, if moisture availability will be sufficiently high, while P. mariana may expand under dry conditions, possibly exacerbating climate impacts on the fire regime.
Bleiben wir im Norden. Ogurtsov et al. zeigten im Februar 2016 in Advances in Space Research weitere Sonne-Klimaeffekte in Alaska auf. In den kanadischen Rocky Mountains ist der Zusammenhang hingegen weniger stark ausgebildet:
Possible solar-climate imprint in temperature proxies from the middle and high latitudes of North America
Five proxy temperature time series based on tree-rings and varves from the middle and high latitudes (φ > 50°) of North America were analyzed. They cover the last 3–5 centuries. It was shown that the reconstructions from Canadian Rockies (52.15° N, 117.15° W) and northeast Alaska (68.8° N, 142.3° W) correlate appreciably with Wolf number and 10Be concentration in Greenland ice over long (T > 13 years) time scales. Correlations are weaker for the reconstruction from northwestern Canada (68.25° N, 133.33° W). Baffin Island (66.6° N, 61.3° W) and the Gulf of Alaska (49–62° N, 123–145° W) show no correlations with records of solar activity. Thus, these results indicate that solar-climatic effects have an apparent regional distribution. Possible causes of this regionality are discussed.
Bereits 2013 hatte eine Gruppe um Timothy Patterson den solaren 11-Jahreszyklus im Klima von Vancouver Island entdeckt. Abstract aus Quaternary International:
Influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and solar forcing on climate and primary productivity changes in the northeast Pacific
Evidence of 11-year Schwabe solar sunspot cycles, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were detected in an annual record of diatomaceous laminated sediments from anoxic Effingham Inlet, Vancouver Island, British Columbia. Radiometric dating and counting of annual varves dates the sediments from AD 1947–1993. Intact sediment slabs were X-rayed for sediment structure (lamina thickness and composition based on gray-scale), and subsamples were examined for diatom abundances and for grain size. Wavelet analysis reveals the presence of ∼2–3, ∼4.5, ∼7 and ∼9–12-year cycles in the diatom record and an ∼11–13 year record in the sedimentary varve thickness record. These cycle lengths suggest that both ENSO and the sunspot cycle had an influence on primary productivity and sedimentation patterns. Sediment grain size could not be correlated to the sunspot cycle although a peak in the grain size data centered around the mid-1970s may be related to the 1976–1977 Pacific climate shift, which occurred when the PDO index shifted from negative (cool conditions) to positive (warm conditions). Additional evidence of the PDO regime shift is found in wavelet and cross-wavelet results for Skeletonema costatum, a weakly silicified variant of S. costatum, annual precipitation and April to June precipitation. Higher spring (April/May) values of the North Pacific High pressure index during sunspot minima suggest that during this time, increased cloud cover and concomitant suppression of the Aleutian Low (AL) pressure system led to strengthened coastal upwelling and enhanced diatom production earlier in the year. These results suggest that the 11-year solar cycle, amplified by cloud cover and upwelling changes, as well as ENSO, exert significant influence on marine primary productivity in the northeast Pacific. The expression of these cyclic phenomena in the sedimentary record were in turn modulated by the phase of PDO, as indicated by the change in period of ENSO and suppression of the solar signal in the record after the 1976–1977 regime shift.