Die Sonne ist der wichtigste Energielieferant der Erde. Da leuchtet es ein, dass geringste Schwankungen in der Sonnenaktivität Auswirkungen auf das Klima haben können. In einigen Fällen wurden ganz deutliche eins-zu-eins Zusammenhänge gefunden, z.B. beim Februar-Regen in Deutschland. Allerdings gibt es auch viele nichtlineare Kopplungen, bei denen ein Zeitverzug von mehreren Jahren bzw. Phasenverschiebungen auftreten. So ganz genau hat man das alles noch nicht verstanden. Trotzdem häufen sich die Hinweise, dass die Sonne einen sehr bedeutenden Einfluss auf das Erdklima ausübt. Wenn die genauen Zusammenhänge klarer werden, muss dann auch der IPCC den Faktor Sonne in seine Klimamodellierungen einbauen. Momentan haben beim Weltklimarat noch immer die „Sonnenleugner“ die Oberhand.
Heute bringen wir ein paar Beispiele aus Asien. Die South China Morning Post meldete am 24. September 2019, dass die Chinesische Zivilisationsgeschichte eng an einen 500-jährigen Sonnenzyklus gekoppelt ist:
The climate theory casting new light on the history of Chinese civilisation
Researchers say that when 500-year-long sun cycles brought warmth, communities flourished, but when the Earth cooled, ancient societies collapsed
Scientists say they have found evidence beneath a lake in northeastern China that ties climate change and 500-year sun cycles to ups and downs in the 8,000 years of Chinese civilisation. According to the study by a team at the Institute of Geology and Geophysics in Beijing published in the science journal Nature Communications this month, whenever the climate warmed, Chinese civilisation prospered and when it cooled, it declined. While historians have used various social and economic factors to explain changes over the millennia, Dr Xu Deke, lead author of the paper, and his colleagues said that while people played their part, their study indicated that cycles in solar activity influenced human activity.
Liu et al. 2017 fanden, dass der Asiatische Sommermonsun in China solar gesteuert ist:
Remote vs. local control on the Preboreal Asian hydroclimate and soil processes recorded by an annually-laminated stalagmite from Daoguan Cave, southern China
Stable isotopic measurements on the upper 168 cm of stalagmite DG24 from southern China, which is annually-laminated above 74.8 cm (∼11.8 ka), reconstruct a history of detailed Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability and soil processes between 14.8 and 10.3 ka. The climate sequence of Bølling-Younger Dryas (YD)-Preboreal events is evident in δ18O record. In the Preboreal, four-year-resolution and annually-counted δ18O record reveals that the ASM strengthening can be divided into three phases, with a prominent and persistent rise initiated at about 11.2 ± 0.3 ka, likely in response to interactions between ocean, atmosphere, and ice sheets. In contrast, the long-term δ18O depletion is absent in the δ13C and annual layer records, which characterize persistent centennial oscillations and likely represent relative humidity of the soil. At multi-decadal scale, prominent ASM failures are generally consistent with periods of δ13C enrichment and decreased layer thickness. When compared with solar proxies, centennial-scale δ13C changes match well with solar activity regardless of the observed disparity between ASM and solar records, and common cycles of 130 and 300 years are identified in both the atmospheric Δ14C and speleothem δ13C records. This implicates that during the Preboreal local soil humidity budget and CO2 production, indicated by the δ13C and annual layer records, is more sensitive to changes in solar output than the regional hydroclimate variability recorded by the δ18O signal.
Auch der Indische Monsun wird durch die Sonnenaktivität beeinflusst, wie Kodera 2004 zeigte:
Solar influence on the Indian Ocean Monsoon through dynamical processes
The result of paleoclimate studies on the relationship between the Indian monsoon and solar activity, inferred from the analysis of stalagmites in Oman, is confirmed by using a modern meteorological dataset from 1958–1999. The present result suggests that the solar influence on monsoon activity is not due to a change in radiative heating in the troposphere but, rather, originates from the stratosphere through modulation of the upwelling in the equatorial troposphere, which produces a north‐south seesaw of convective activity over the Indian Ocean sector during summer. Higher precipitation over Arabia and India, thus, occurs during high solar activity.
Und auch beim Südostasiatischen Monsun hat die Sonne ihre Hand mit im Spiel, wie wir einer Pressemitteilung der University of Hawaii at Manoa von 2015 entnehmen (via Science Daily):
New study explains near-annual Monsoon oscillations generated by El Niño
New research results show how interaction of the El Niño phenomenon with the annual cycle of solar radiation in the western Pacific generates a suite of predictable wind and rainfall patterns associated with the Southeast Asian Monsoons. In contrast to the inter-annual timescales of El Niño, monsoon oscillations occur on nearly annual timescales. The methodology provides a new way to explore atmosphere variability, as well as a number of other climate phenomena.
A new research study by a team of climate researchers from the University of Hawai’i at Mānoa explains for the first time the source of near-annual pressure and wind changes discovered previously in the Southeast Asian Monsoon system. The results, published this week in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, show how the El Niño phenomenon interacts with the annual cycle of solar radiation in the western Pacific to generate a suite of new atmospheric pressure oscillations that affects wind and rainfall patterns in Southeast Asia, one of the densest populated areas on our planet.
There still remain major uncertainties about how the atmospheric circulation and the rainfall patterns over Southeast Asia and the Western Tropical Pacific respond to El Niño conditions, such as the current 2015 event. The new findings by Malte Stuecker and Fei-Fei Jin, from the Department of Atmospheric Sciences, and Axel Timmermann from the International Pacific Research Center at the University of Hawai’i, Mānoa demonstrate that the atmospheric reaction is much more predictable than previously assumed. As a result of the developing and decaying El Niño conditions and the seasonal march of the sun across the equator, a series of near-annual atmosphere oscillations is generated with periods of about 24, 16, 10, and 8 months, each with its own characteristic pressure pattern. All of these contribute to the formation of an extended and very persistent high pressure system over the western tropical Pacific, which peaks in January and re-emerges in the boreal summer of the following La Niña year.
„Known as the Philippine Sea Anticyclone, this pattern plays a pivotal role in how the effects of El Niño are expressed in Southeast Asia,“ explains Stuecker, climate scientist and lead author of the study. „In the past, many researchers looked at seasonal averages of wind and rainfall and missed the details of this variability,“ he adds. „Our new theory also explains the observed persistence of the Philippine Sea Anticyclone, even months after El Niño warming has subsided and well into the subsequent La Niña summer. The effect of El Niño in winter is qualitatively similar to the effect of La Niña in summer. These effects occur when the phases of Pacific warming and the annual solar cycle coincide,“ says co-author Fei-Fei Jin, climate researcher and Professor at the Department of Atmospheric Sciences.
„These near-annual monsoon oscillations have some resemblance to the different ringing tones of a bell. Finding a new structure in the chaos of otherwise random weather variability has been very exciting, because it may open the door to enhanced seasonal predictability,“ says co-author Axel Timmermann, Professor at the Oceanography Department and the International Pacific Research Center. The scientists emphasize that this mechanism provides a fundamentally new way to understand variability in the atmosphere on a large range of timescales and can be applied to a number of different climate phenomena.
Paper: Malte F. Stuecker, Fei-Fei Jin, Axel Timmermann. El Niño−Southern Oscillation frequency cascade. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2015; 201508622 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1508622112
Kaftan et al. 2016 dokumentierten, dass der Wasserspiegel des Kaspischen Meeres durch solare Schwankungen gepulst wird:
Solar-Terrestrial interaction: case study of Caspian Sea level changes
The results of the analysis of the average annual values concerning the Caspian Sea level, obtained according to the ground and satellite observations, and also the corresponding characteristics of solar activity, earth’s magnetic field and a length of day are presented. Spectra of the indicated processes are investigated and their approximation models are also built. Previously assumed statistical dependence between space-geophysical processes and Caspian Sea level (CSL) changes is confirmed. Close connection is revealed in the low-frequency models of the solar and geomagnetic activity change with the sea level. Prediction to the next decades shows the high probability of an increase in CSL and decrease of the compared space-geophysical parameters
Laut Wiles et al. 2015 wurden die Sommertemperaturen von Sakhalin Island in Sibirien von der Sonne beeinflusst:
Reconstructed summer temperatures over the last 400 years based on larch ring widths: Sakhalin Island, Russian Far East
A new ring-width record from the eastern flanks of the Eastern Sakhalin Range, Sakhalin Island, Russian Federation is significantly correlated with summer temperatures and allows for the reconstruction of May–July average temperatures for the past 400 years. The reconstruction explains 37 % of the variance in May–July temperatures and shows a strong cooling between 1680 and 1710 CE coincident with the Maunder solar minimum and in agreement with other independent tree-ring reconstructions and glacier histories from sites along the margin of the Sea of Okhotsk. While recent decades are among the warmest in the record they are rivaled by periods centered on 1650 and 1850 CE. Warming in the observational record and the reconstruction is consistent with the influence of the declining strength of the Siberian High and loss of sea ice over the same interval. Decadal (17–25 year) variability persists throughout the reconstruction. At interannual timescales the Sakhalin reconstruction is most strongly correlated with local and central North Pacific sea surface temperatures over the past 120 years, whereas at decadal timescales there is an additional association with Asian land surface temperatures.
Auch in Nordostasien ist das Sonnensignal im Klima deutlich erkennbar. Fang et al. 2019:
An interdecadal climate dipole between Northeast Asia and Antarctica over the past five centuries
Climate models emphasize the need to investigate inter-hemispheric climatic interactions. However, these models often underestimate the inter-hemispheric differences in climate change. With the wide application of reanalysis data since 1948, we identified a dipole pattern between the geopotential heights (GPHs) in Northeast Asia and Antarctica on the interdecadal scale in boreal summer. This Northeast Asia/Antarctica (NAA) dipole pattern is not conspicuous on the interannual scale, probably in that the interannual inter-hemispheric climate interaction is masked by strong interannual signals in the tropics associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Unfortunately, the instrumental records are not sufficiently long-lasting to detect the interdecadal variability of the NAA. We thus reconstructed GPHs since 1565, making using the proxy records mostly from tree rings in Northeast Asia and ice cores from Antarctica. The strength of the NAA is time-varying and it is most conspicuous in the eighteenth century and after the late twentieth century. The strength of the NAA matches well with the variations of the solar radiation and tends to increase in along with its enhancement. In boreal summer, enhanced heating associated with high solar radiation in the Northern Hemisphere drives more air masses from the South to the North. This inter-hemispheric interaction is particularly strong in East Asia as a result of the Asian summer monsoon. Northeast Asia and Antarctica appear to be the key regions responsible for inter-hemispheric interactions on the interdecadal scale in boreal summer since they are respectively located at the front and the end of this inter-hemispheric trajectory.
Und zum Abschluss noch ein besonderes Schmankerl: Der Wasserdampf auf der Arabischen Halbinsel wird von der Sonne gesteuert. Maghrabi 2019:
Multi- decadal variations and periodicities of the precipitable water vapour (PWV) and their possible association with solar activity: Arabian Peninsula
In this study, radiosonde observations from seven sites in Saudi Arabia for the period 1985 to 2016 were utilized to investigate the interannual, monthly, and seasonal variations and trends of precipitable water vapour (PWV). The magnitudes of these trends have been characterized and tested using the Mann-Kendall (MK) rank statistics at different significance levels. A significant decrease in the annual mean PWV by about 7% is found for the entire period. A seasonal cycle of PWV with a maximum during summer time and a minimum during winter has been found and can be mostly attributed to the variations of air temperature. On a monthly basis, the PWV values revealed a decreasing trend with the rate of decrease ranging between 0.47 and 2.6 mm per 32 years. There was a decrease in PWV in all the seasons, but it was only significant for the spring season, when it was the highest (1.79 mm per 32 years). Power spectra analyses using the Fourier Transform (FT) technique were carried out for the period 1985–2016 to investigate the periodicities in the PWV time series. Several long, mid, and short-term periodicities were recognized. Short-term periodicities such as one year, six months, three months, and four months were found. On the other hand, long and mid term periodicities such as 10.8–11 years, 1.7 years, and 1.3 years were detected. The obtained periodicities are similar to those reported by several investigators and found in solar, interplanetary, and cosmic ray parameters. The spectral results suggest that the obtained PWV periodicities in Arabian Peninsula are, possibly, related to the solar activities, as well as, the effect of terrestrial meteorological phenomena.