Die Sonne? Die habe doch gar keinen Einfluss auf das Klima. Daran wird zumindest in Klimaalarmistenkreisen stark geglaubt. Eine neue Studie vom 28. April 2016 aus den Geophysical Research Letters bringt das Weltbild nun endgültig ins Wanken. Forscher konnten zeigen, dass Änderungen der solaren UV-Strahlung im Monatsmaßstab einen deutlichen Einfluss auf die Temperaturen in den unteren Wetterstockwerken in den Tropen haben. Hier der Abstract der Arbeit von L. L. Hood von der Univeristy of Arizona in Tucson:
Lagged response of tropical tropospheric temperature to solar ultraviolet variations on intraseasonal time scales
Correlative and regression analyses of daily ERA-Interim reanalysis data for three separate solar maximum periods confirm the existence of a temperature response to short-term (mainly ∼27 day) solar ultraviolet variations at tropical latitudes in both the lower stratosphere and troposphere. The response, which occurs at a phase lag of 6–10 days after the solar forcing peak, consists of a warming in the lower stratosphere, consistent with relative downwelling and a slowing of the mean meridional (Brewer-Dobson) circulation, and a cooling in the troposphere. The midtropospheric cooling response is most significant in the tropical Pacific, especially under positive El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions and may be related to a reduction in the number of Madden-Julian oscillation events that propagate eastward into the central Pacific following peaks in short-term solar forcing.
Thomas et al. fanden solar-gesteuerte Tempersaturveränderungen in der Mesosphäre, die sie im November 2015 im Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics beschrieben:
Solar-induced 27-day variations of mesospheric temperature and water vapor from the AIM SOFIE experiment: Drivers of polar mesospheric cloud variability
Polar Mesospheric Clouds (PMCs) are known to be influenced by changes in water vapor and temperature in the cold summertime mesopause. Solar variability of these constituents has been held responsible for 11-year and 27-day variability of PMC activity, although the detailed mechanisms are not yet understood. It is also known that the solar influence on PMC variability is a minor contributor to the overall day-to-day variability, which is dominated by effects of gravity waves, planetary waves, and inter-hemispheric coupling. To address this issue, we have analyzed 15 seasons of data taken from the Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment (SOFIE) on the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) satellite. The SOFIE data contain precise measurements of water vapor, temperature and ice water content (among other quantities). These high-latitude measurements are made during the PMC season at the terminator, and therefore directly relate to the simultaneous measurements of mesospheric ice. Using a composite data set of Lyman-α irradiance, we correlated the time variation of the atmospheric variables with the 27-day variability of solar ultraviolet irradiance. We used a combination of time-lagged linear regression and Superposed Epoch Analysis to extract the solar contribution as sensitivity values (response/forcing) vs. height. We compare these results to previously published results, and show that the temperature sensitivity is somewhat higher, whereas the water sensitivity is nearly the same as published values. The time lags are shorter than that expected from direct solar heating and photodissociation, suggesting that the responses are due to 27-day variations of vertical winds. An analytic solution for temperature changes forced by solar irradiance variations suggests that if the response is due purely to Lyman-α heating and Newtonian cooling, the response should vary throughout the summertime season and depend primarily upon the height-dependent column density of molecular oxygen.
Einen spürbaren Klimaeinfluss von solaren UV-Schwankungen berichteten auch Ball et al. in einer Studie, die am 25. Januar 2016 in Nature Geoscience erschien. Interessantes Resultat: Die Modelle können die Realität nicht reproduzieren. Hier der Abstract:
High solar cycle spectral variations inconsistent with stratospheric ozone observations
Solar variability can influence surface climate, for example by affecting the mid-to-high-latitude surface pressure gradient associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation1. One key mechanism behind such an influence is the absorption of solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation by ozone in the tropical stratosphere, a process that modifies temperature and wind patterns and hence wave propagation and atmospheric circulation2, 3, 4, 5. The amplitude of UV variability is uncertain, yet it directly affects the magnitude of the climate response6: observations from the SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite7 show broadband changes up to three times larger than previous measurements8, 9. Here we present estimates of the stratospheric ozone variability during the solar cycle. Specifically, we estimate the photolytic response of stratospheric ozone to changes in spectral solar irradiance by calculating the difference between a reference chemistry–climate model simulation of ozone variability driven only by transport (with no changes in solar irradiance) and observations of ozone concentrations. Subtracting the reference from simulations with time-varying irradiance, we can evaluate different data sets of measured and modelled spectral irradiance. We find that at altitudes above pressure levels of 5 hPa, the ozone response to solar variability simulated using the SORCE spectral solar irradiance data are inconsistent with the observations.
Die lange vernachlässigte Verknüpfung zwischen der Schwankungen der Sonnenaktivität und klimatischen Veränderungen an der Meeresoberfläche, Troposphäre und Stratosphäre beschrieben auch Yamakawa et al. im März 2016 im Fachblatt Quaternary International:
Relationships between solar activity and variations in SST and atmospheric circulation in the stratosphere and troposphere
Relationships between solar activity and variations in both sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation at the time of the solar maximum are presented. The global distribution of correlation coefficients between annual relative sunspot numbers (SSN) and SST from July to December was examined over a 111-year period from 1901 to 2011. Areas with a significant positive correlation accounted for 11.7% of the global sea surface in December, mainly over three regions in the Pacific. The influence of solar activity on global atmospheric pressure variations and circulation in the maximum years was also analyzed from 1979 to 2011. The results indicated that higher geopotential height anomalies tended to appear in the stratosphere and troposphere in the northern hemisphere, centering on around the Hawaiian Islands from November to December, in the second year of the solar maximum. The SST distribution in the Pacific with strong north and south Pacific Highs produced a pattern that resembled teleconnection patterns such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Central-Pacific (CP) El Niño, or El Niño Modoki (ENM). It is suggested that the solar activity had an influence on the troposphere via not only the stratosphere but also the sea surface.
In eine ähnliche Richtung geht eine Arbeit von Reichler et al., die bereits 2012 in Nature Geoscience erschienen war:
A stratospheric connection to Atlantic climate variability
The stratosphere is connected to tropospheric weather and climate. In particular, extreme stratospheric circulation events are known to exert a dynamical feedback on the troposphere1. However, it is unclear whether the state of the stratosphere also affects the ocean and its circulation. A co-variability of decadal stratospheric flow variations and conditions in the North Atlantic Ocean has been suggested, but such findings are based on short simulations with only one climate model2. Here we assess ocean reanalysis data and find that, over the previous 30 years, the stratosphere and the Atlantic thermohaline circulation experienced low-frequency variations that were similar to each other. Using climate models, we demonstrate that this similarity is consistent with the hypothesis that variations in the sequence of stratospheric circulation anomalies, combined with the persistence of individual anomalies, significantly affect the North Atlantic Ocean. Our analyses identify a previously unknown source for decadal climate variability and suggest that simulations of deep layers of the atmosphere and the ocean are needed for realistic predictions of climate.
Die University of Utah gab dazu die folgende Pressemitteilung heraus:
Stratosphere Targets Deep Sea to Shape Climate:
North Atlantic ‘Achilles heel’ lets upper atmosphere affect the abyss
A University of Utah study suggests something amazing: Periodic changes in winds 15 to 30 miles high in the stratosphere influence the seas by striking a vulnerable “Achilles heel” in the North Atlantic and changing mile-deep ocean circulation patterns, which in turn affect Earth’s climate.
“We found evidence that what happens in the stratosphere matters for the ocean circulation and therefore for climate,” says Thomas Reichler, senior author of the study published online Sunday, Sept. 23 in the journal Nature Geoscience.
Scientists already knew that events in the stratosphere, 6 miles to 30 miles above Earth, affect what happens below in the troposphere, the part of the atmosphere from Earth’s surface up to 6 miles or about 32,800 feet. Weather occurs in the troposphere.
Researchers also knew that global circulation patterns in the oceans – patterns caused mostly by variations in water temperature and saltiness – affect global climate.
“It is not new that the stratosphere impacts the troposphere,” says Reichler, an associate professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Utah. “It also is not new that the troposphere impacts the ocean. But now we actually demonstrated an entire link between the stratosphere, the troposphere and the ocean.”
Funded by the University of Utah, Reichler conducted the study with University of Utah atmospheric sciences doctoral student Junsu Kim, and with atmospheric scientist Elisa Manzini and oceanographer Jürgen Kröger, both with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany.
Stratospheric Winds and Sea Circulation Show Similar Rhythms
Reichler and colleagues used weather observations and 4,000 years worth of supercomputer simulations of weather to show a surprising association between decade-scale, periodic changes in stratospheric wind patterns known as the polar vortex, and similar rhythmic changes in deep-sea circulation patterns. The changes are:
— “Stratospheric sudden warming” events occur when temperatures rise and 80-mph “polar vortex” winds encircling the Artic suddenly weaken or even change direction. These winds extend from 15 miles elevation in the stratosphere up beyond the top of the stratosphere at 30 miles. The changes last for up to 60 days, allowing time for their effects to propagate down through the atmosphere to the ocean.
— Changes in the speed of the Atlantic circulation pattern – known as Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation – that influences the world’s oceans because it acts like a conveyor belt moving water around the planet.
Sometimes, both events happen several years in a row in one decade, and then none occur in the next decade. So incorporating this decade-scale effect of the stratosphere on the sea into supercomputer climate simulations or “models” is important in forecasting decade-to-decade climate changes that are distinct from global warming, Reichler says.
“If we as humans modify the stratosphere, it may – through the chain of events we demonstrate in this study – also impact the ocean circulation,” he says. “Good examples of how we modify the stratosphere are the ozone hole and also fossil-fuel burning that adds carbon dioxide to the stratosphere. These changes to the stratosphere can alter the ocean, and any change to the ocean is extremely important to global climate.”
A Vulnerable Soft Spot in the North Atlantic
“The North Atlantic is particularly important for global ocean circulation, and therefore for climate worldwide,” Reichler says. “In a region south of Greenland, which is called the downwelling region, water can get cold and salty enough – and thus dense enough – so the water starts sinking.”
It is Earth’s most important region of seawater downwelling, he adds. That sinking of cold, salty water “drives the three-dimensional oceanic conveyor belt circulation. What happens in the Atlantic also affects the other oceans.”
Reichler continues: “This area where downwelling occurs is quite susceptible to cooling or warming from the troposphere. If the water is close to becoming heavy enough to sink, then even small additional amounts of heating or cooling from the atmosphere may be imported to the ocean and either trigger downwelling events or delay them.”
Because of that sensitivity, Reichler calls the sea south of Greenland “the Achilles heel of the North Atlantic.”
From Stratosphere to the Sea
In winter, the stratospheric Arctic polar vortex whirls counterclockwise around the North Pole, with the strongest, 80-mph winds at about 60 degrees north latitude. They are stronger than jet stream winds, which are less than 70 mph in the troposphere below. But every two years on average, the stratospheric air suddenly is disrupted and the vortex gets warmer and weaker, and sometimes even shifts direction to clockwise.
“These are catastrophic rearrangements of circulation in the stratosphere,” and the weaker or reversed polar vortex persists up to two months, Reichler says. “Breakdown of the polar vortex can affect circulation in the troposphere all the way down to the surface.”
Reichler’s study ventured into new territory by asking if changes in stratospheric polar vortex winds impart heat or cold to the sea, and how that affects the sea.
It already was known that that these stratospheric wind changes affect the North Atlantic Oscillation – a pattern of low atmospheric pressure centered over Greenland and high pressure over the Azores to the south. The pattern can reverse or oscillate.
Because the oscillating pressure patterns are located above the ocean downwelling area near Greenland, the question is whether that pattern affects the downwelling and, in turn, the global oceanic circulation conveyor belt.
The study’s computer simulations show a decadal on-off pattern of correlated changes in the polar vortex, atmospheric pressure oscillations over the North Atlantic and changes in sea circulation more than one mile beneath the waves. Observations are consistent with the pattern revealed in computer simulations.
Observations and Simulations of the Stratosphere-to-Sea Link
In the 1980s and 2000s, a series of stratospheric sudden warming events weakened polar vortex winds. During the 1990s, the polar vortex remained strong.
Reichler and colleagues used published worldwide ocean observations from a dozen research groups to reconstruct behavior of the conveyor belt ocean circulation during the same 30-year period.
“The weakening and strengthening of the stratospheric circulation seems to correspond with changes in ocean circulation in the North Atlantic,” Reichler says.
To reduce uncertainties about the observations, the researchers used computers to simulate 4,000 years worth of atmosphere and ocean circulation.
“The computer model showed that when we have a series of these polar vortex changes, the ocean circulation is susceptible to those stratospheric events,” Reichler says.
To further verify the findings, the researchers combined 18 atmosphere and ocean models into one big simulation, and “we see very similar outcomes.”
The study suggests there is “a significant stratospheric impact on the ocean,” the researchers write. “Recurring stratospheric vortex events create long-lived perturbations at the ocean surface, which penetrate into the deeper ocean and trigger multidecadal variability in its circulation. This leads to the remarkable fact that signals that emanate from the stratosphere cross the entire atmosphere-ocean system.”